The hidden agenda behind South Africa's energy transition

The article by Crown Prince Adil Nchabeleng in Business Report, titled “Coal conundrum: Why South Africa should not abandon its black gold” had jewels in it.

These are: 1. Growth hypothesis (GH), 2. Conservative hypothesis, (CH)3. Feedback hypothesis (FH), and 4. Neutrality hypothesis (NH). Three of these are complimentary to one another and suggest that energy consumption and growth in gross domestic product have a net causal and positive relationship. The fourth hypothesis suggests that the relationship is neutral.

What is important about Nchabeleng’s contribution is the question this raises about a debate and decision that saw South Africa under a reign of terror by darkness for six years. It all happened in the dark, no one was seen, caught and brought to account. It was all cheers when to date as a country we have seen 200 days of light aka lack of loadshedding.

This reminds me of my late father. He was a teacher by profession and a historian of note. He was also a stickler for time as measured by work done or opportunity lost. When it came to accountability no stone would be left unturned. Procrastination is a thief of time and time and tide wait for no man anchored his philosophy. I remember that he hated when school kids cheered for a bus if it arrived late.

That Eskom duo Mteto Nyati and Dan Marokane stated their plan of action and its deliverables right at the beginning of their tenure and that demonstrates the power of foresight, its attendant tools and the will to execute. The will to execute does not discount the presence of fear of failure. But with a plan, transparency and attendant risks are explicated ahead of time and accountability becomes a forward-looking responsibility which enables those in the middle of the challenge to see ahead. This is what has made Nyati and Marokane such champions.

What is disgusting though is those who were cheering the collapse of Eskom and its unrepairable equipment are now quiet. They vilified the obvious evidence on the performance of Eskom up to 2018. At that point Eskom was last amongst the top 18 power stations and then vanished completely from the top rankings. This is after having enjoyed being amongst the top ten in the world in its heydays.

It took six years of concerted effort by academia, politicians, pseudo engineers and CEO misfits to further damage Eskom. A display of idiots, or was there a darker agenda behind the never-ending buffoonery? At a 100 years, Eskom commiserated its birthday in the dark - an irony of massive proportions.

Jan Oberholzer, the so-called chief operating officer at Eskom, then “retired” from Eskom to join Mulilo – a solar and wind power energy outfit.

The parade of idiots was not idiotic at all. At the core of it is Noam Chomsky’s observation that the standard technique of privatisation is “defund, make sure things don’t work, people get angry, you hand it over to private capital.” Thus Oberholzer’s renewable move should be analysed more deeply to understand what is at play.

Eskom is a celebrated use case of how politics and capital connived on a lie about Eskom and disregard for energy starvation. In this jungle of knowing idiots, 38% of small businesses had to buy generators to get by. Small businesses now are burdened with paying back the funds for the purchase. According to StatsSA, on energy consumption households had to spend what little money they had on extremely expensive gas to keep life afloat amid loadshedding. In cases this was up to three times their expenditure.

Now Eskom is proposing a 31% increase on tariffs, and the money goes to the likes of Mulilo and its cohorts because they are entitled to be paid whether Eskom needs their electricity or not. A false narrative is being paraded as truth that loadshedding was mitigated by 6000 megawatts of renewables. Such a lie can be told and believed by sophomores in economics.

Eskom actually does not need the power from renewables, it is a burden that now has generated an increase in tariffs. But in addressing the lie, one has to go into the economics of it. Most renewables are imported and you only need to read Indian- American economist Jagdish Bhagwati on immiserising growth to dismiss this blue mendacity.

What has the government put in place to mitigate the suffering - yet another downright dunderhead solution - a two-pot system.

The number that have rushed for the poisoned chalice are taken as a sign of success of this system. However, this is an abuse of measurement. I retired on three-thirds of a pension, yet it is not enough. How worse will be those who retire on an emaciated two-thirds. They would have eaten the seed. There is no end in sight of the exercise of stupidity in this country.

According to my father’s code of ethics, Nyati and Marokane may represent a bus that came late to aid Eskom’s recovery and thus not deserving of any cheers. However, they deserve serious cheers. This is for at least three reasons. They proved that engineering is a worthwhile profession.

Politicians, cashiers and pseudo academics should never be allowed to get close to it as decision makers. Their evidence, which confirms that of other engineers like Matshela Koko, Jacob Maroga, Tshepo Kgadima and the late Tedd Bloom puts paid the reason for an inquest into government responsibilities over the six years of reign of terror by darkness and it also points to possible fingers in the “cookie jar” or just obvious downright economic mismanagement or all of the above.

The framing of the thesis by Nchabeleng sets clear terms of reference for such an inquest, which should answer not the technicalities of obligations of windows, however, many they might have been, that opened and closed for bids. But essentially should answer who benefits from the South African Just Energy Transition Trojan Horse that will further damage our energy security?

This is an important agenda item for the much talked about national dialogue. Perhaps when all the chips are down, we can start to rebuild the South Africa we wish for. This could start by appreciating, (i) the iconic institutions and their ilk such as Eskom and celebrating its 100 years of existence, (ii) design thinking and system design that spawned the sophisticated infrastructure South Africa, (iii) the liberation movements and citizens that brought down apartheid, (iv) respecting Nelson Mandela not only as the iconic statue in Mandela Square, but recognising that the neglected place of his last breath in Houghton, a mere stone throw from Sandton, makes him restless and remains a sore sight on the South African conscience and the global eye, and (v) paying attention to Soweto June 16 Youth Uprising and focus on intergenerational value creation.

Thirty years into democracy there is no sign of intergenerational value for Blacks and Coloureds except for the few admitted to the white high table that matches Korea or Norway.

South Africa’s JSE as a stock exchange is ranked within the top 20 in the world with a market capitalisation of roughly R20.5 trillion. But it is the number one in inequality. It is number 83 amongst the income poor countries and sadly none of its club of its 30 top stock exchanges feature in the club of this low income. It is an anomaly. Perhaps in the second coming things will be better. We may have to wait and hope. For it is now all that remains.

Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, a Research Associate at Oxford University, a board member of Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former Statistician-General of South Africa.

BUSINESS REPORT