The future of energy: Trump's return and its global implications
Former US President Donald Trump has won the 47th Presidential race in a surprising turn of events. Who would have ever thought this was possible after his tumultuous exit from power, soon after the January 6, 2021 storming of the US Capitol and amid rumours of a rigged election outcome?
Trump famously popularised the "Make America Great Again" slogan, and in the latest election, he revamped it to "Make America Greater than Ever Before" and "No Surrender."
Furthermore, the president elect has vowed to once again withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement for the second time.
This will be a stumbling block to the COP29 climate summit being held in Azerbaijan, where nations aim to map out the phasing down fossil fuels and providing climate aid to poorer nations.
The biggest losers in this Trump victory are the green energy lobbyists. Trump is well known for his outspoken stance against the Green New Deal. He openly opposes the green agenda, which he views as an attempt to deindustrialise and decarbonise America.
Under the Biden administration, an aggressive green agenda was pursued, often at the expense of the American economy. Major fossil fuel industries were targeted by green policies, with some forced to shut down due to heavy environmental levies and taxes. On Biden’s first day in office, he shut down the Keystone XL pipeline, a move that reportedly eliminated 11000 American jobs.
According to an analysis of new US Environmental Protection Agency policies—such as electric vehicle mandates—by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, implementing only a portion of Biden’s environmental regulations was projected to cost more than $845 billion (R15 trillion), an expense ultimately borne by US taxpayers.
Trump’s victory has revived the hopes of millions of Americans who lost homes, jobs, livelihoods, and incomes during the Biden era of net-zero, anti-fossil-fuel policies. This clumsy political approach will have lasting impacts, as a successful economy takes years to build.
During his election campaign, Trump described clean energy as "a new scam business." He has promised to boost US oil production, saying, “China is laughing at us as they build two new coal plants a week.” He pointed to Germany’s energy policy failures, noting that Germany’s economy suffered as they followed the green agenda and as a resultt have had to rebuild coal plants.
"Why are we following these countries that tried and failed?" he asked. "These are smart countries, and even they failed. Why aren't we creating great energy plans and sources?"
Trump clarified his stance, saying, “Look, I am all for clean energy. I want clean water; I want clean air. But you can't destroy your country over it. I'm a big fan of solar, but it’s limited—it can't power a plant. Fire up those plants; we've got to get them going. Right now, the only things that can reliably generate electricity are fossil fuels and nuclear power.”
I believe the US will be in better hands under Trump regarding its energy plan and future prospects. His boldness and single-minded focus on speaking truthfully have won the hearts and support of millions for his 2024 re-election. Few politicians have mastered the art of speaking truth to power, even if it means risking everything.
Where does this leave South Africa? With the anticipated shift in U. energy policy, South Africa might see renewed interest in technology exchange with the US, especially in coal HELE (high-efficiency, low-emission) technology and nuclear power projects.
South African policymakers still seem hesitant to make choices that would benefit the nation. Just as Trump championed “drill, baby, drill,” South Africa could benefit from a “coal, baby, coal” approach. The time is right for South Africa to promote its energy interests and pursue policies that align with the current global demand for coal, an abundant resource that could last nearly a thousand years.
The clean energy policies South Africa has implemented in recent years have negatively impacted economic growth.
Eskom, the national power utility, nearly collapsed under the weight of overambitious net-zero emissions goals. At one point, over 24000 MW of electricity generation capacity was lost due to stringent emission standards, and load shedding reached unprecedented levels, bringing economic and social hardship.
Faced with severe economic damage and public dissatisfaction, the ANC government had no choice but to reverse its aggressive stance on shutting down power stations.
Trump’s victory could signal a broader relaxation of climate change policies globally. This may lead to increased energy competition in the coming years, as countries re-evaluate their energy policies to focus on domestic priorities and economic growth rather than adhering to the international climate agenda.
Will Trump’s leadership free the world from an overemphasis on climate goals? Only time will tell. For now, we wait with bated breath to see if energy policy will regain a fair, competitive foundation.
Crown Prince Adil Nchabeleng is president of Transform RSA and an independent energy expert.
* The views in this column are independent of “Business Report” and Independent Media.
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