South African vehicle exports saw a significant decline in 2024

Following three consecutive years of growth, culminating in an all-time record in 2023, South African new vehicle exports declined by a significant 22.8% in 2024.

Total exports fell from 399,594 the previous year to 308,380 units in 2024, Naamsa reported, citing numerous economic factors.

Passenger car exports, at 192,542 units, fell by 25.4% while bakkie exports, at 115,192, were down 18% year-on-year.

Naamsa attributes the fall in exports to a slowdown in demand in the European Union, which is one of South Africa’s key export destinations. This region suffered from low economic growth in the past year, however stricter emission rules and competition from cheaper electric vehicle imports from China also affected the demand patterns in its automotive market.

BMW’s changeover from the old to the new X3 towards the end of 2024 also had an impact on the year’s export numbers.

Detailed export figures for December weren’t available at the time of writing, but for what it’s worth, the Ford Ranger was South Africa’s top vehicle export, at 10,574 units, followed by the Mercedes C-Class (8,400), BMW X3 (4,700), Toyota Hilux (3,986) and Volkswagen Polo (1,780). By surpassing the 10,000 mark, the Ford Ranger also achieved a new export record that month.

What's the outlook going forward?

Naamsa believes that an expected continuation of interest rate cuts in South Africa’s key export markets could see local exports momentum turn positive again over the medium term.

Exports currently account for two thirds of South African vehicle production, Naamsa says. In short, they remain key to achieving the economies of scale needed to keep local manufacturing plants viable.

Looking further into the future, and with Europe poised to ban the sale of internal combustion vehicles from 2035, South Africa is looking to attract electric vehicle export contracts through a new 150% tax incentive that was signed into law by President Cyril Ramaphosa in late December.

The incentive, which comes into effect from 2026, will allow vehicle manufacturers to deduct 150% of the cost of buildings and equipment used primarily for producing electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles.

While this incentive could boost local manufacturing, Zero Carbon Charge (now called Charge) has called upon the government to address the barriers that hinder EV adoption in South Africa, including local tax rates and charging infrastructure.

“This incentive to boost local manufacturing is a positive step forward, but we also need to reduce the current high import duties for EVs - 25% compared to 18% for combustion engine vehicles. These taxes inflate EV prices, slow demand and limit market growth. CHARGE continues to call for a six-year tax holiday on EV imports to address this imbalance,” Charge said.

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