Relief! SA fuel price hiking cycle may be coming to an end soon

Are we facing an increase or decrease in March? Predicting South Africa’s fuel price outlook is tricky business at present, as fluctuating oil prices have seen states of over-recovery and under-recovery developing throughout the month.

As it stands mid-month, the latest data from the Central Energy Fund is pointing to increases of 13 cents for 95 Unleaded petrol and 25 cents for 93 Unleaded, while 500ppm diesel is looking set for a small price hike of seven cents and no price adjustment for 50ppm.

However, with international oil prices having receded in recent days, this outlook is likely to improve between now and the end of March and if current trends persist, South Africans could see a negligible increase or even a small decrease, particularly in the case of diesel.

There is a great deal of uncertainty in global markets at present as economic role players digest the implications of Donald Trump’s tariffs and other international policies. These could prove both positive and negative for oil markets.

For instance crude oil prices reversed their recent gains on Thursday, driven by expectations that a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia could ease sanctions.

“Such developments could reduce the risks of supply disruptions and could weigh on prices. However, the uncertainty surrounding developments toward a permanent peace could fuel some volatility,” said George Pavel, General Manager at trading firm Naga.com.

“Meanwhile, rising US crude stocks have contributed to a bearish sentiment, with inventories increasing more than expected. This uptick could indicate that supply is outpacing demand, adding further downward pressure on oil prices,” Pavel added.

Trump's tariff plans are also introducing uncertainty to oil markets, as subdued economic growth would dampen oil demand.

Together, these factors could weigh on prices in the near term, creating additional uncertainty in the market.

Notwithstanding any rand weakness that may result, this situation is good news for fuel prices, which are likely to remain stable in the short to medium term.

This is welcome news following February’s petrol price hike of 82 cents, and diesel increases of up to R1.05.

This followed petrol price hikes of between 12 cents and 19 cents in January, 17 cents in December and 25 cents in November.

ALSO READ: How South Africa’s fuel prices fluctuated in 2024, and what 2025 is likely to bring

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