Deputy Director of UNESCO Xing Qu (centre) and the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Fatou Bensouda observe the ancient manuscripts of Timbuktu in the Ahmed Baba Institute of Higher Learning and Islamic Research on March 31, 2021. Islamists destroyed Timbuktu's World Heritage-listed mausoleums in 2012. Picture: MICHELE CATTANI/AFP
Kim Heller
There is a real struggle for survival in the Sahel. The pursuit of economic prosperity and healthy sovereignty by Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, is likely to be waylaid as terrorism continues to undermine country and regional security and stability.
The number of deaths caused by militant Islamic-group violence appears to be spiralling upwards, and out of control. According to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, the death toll from Islamic insurgency in Africa in 2023 increased by 20% year on year and almost doubled since 2020.
Of the 23 322 lives lost in the Continent over the year, 99% were in the Sahel, Somalia and the Lake Chad Basin. Fifty per cent were in the Sahel. The Africa Centre for Strategy Studies estimates that the 11 643 fatalities in the Sahel during 2023 represent a “near threefold increase” from levels seen in 2020 and a “record high” in militant Islamic-group violence since the “peak of the Boko Haram violence in 2015”.
The two major militant Islamic groups, the Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) are gaining ground. The militant groups are making significant inroads, especially in the besieged Burkina Faso which has slowly but surely become a typography of violence and displacement. Mali, Niger, and Benin are also experiencing higher levels of militant Islamist violence. Borders, across the Sahel have weakened, placing country sovereignty and security under threat.
The crisis in the Sahel is inflaming instability in the rest of the Continent as high displacement levels are causing a flood of desperate refugees. The level of violence and desperation continues to swell as insurgents collaborate and work hand in hand with criminal elements. The risk to the region and Continent is mounting.
In September 2023, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali set up the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This was, in part, a response to the long-standing crisis of insurgency and insecurity, which was not quelled by the presence or efforts of Western military forces. The formation of a joint anti-terrorism force was announced in March 2024. A joint defence force for AES is in the works. The AES was also established with the intent to foster economic integration, collaboration and progress, and marked the cutting off of ties with Western partners. In a move towards sovereignty, the AES withdrew from ECOWAS earlier this year.
The severing of ties with the US and France, the snubbing of ECOWAS and the formation of the Sahel Alliance all signposted the journey towards economic and military self-determination. But these noble pursuits are currently being dead-ended as Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger struggle to deal with the might and malice of insurgency.
The road towards self-determination, sustainable development and sovereignty is potholed by persistent violent attacks by Islamic militant groups. Weakened by these constant attacks, the three junta governments are unable to get on with the business of stabilising and governing their countries. They are slowly losing their hold.
The eagle-eyed focus on sovereignty has now turned into a battle for survival. And the Sahel Alliance leaders are looking to new allies for help. Russian military instructors are already deployed in the Sahel to try and assist in the battle against Islamist insurgents. In 2023, it is estimated that Russia delivered more than $5 billion in arms to Africa. This is set to increase.
The BBC’s regional editor for Africa, Will Rose reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered "total support" for Africa, including in the struggle against terrorism and extremism. At a recent summit between Russia and African governments, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov read out Putin’s speech which reiterated that Russia would provide support to “African friends”. This would include “ensuring sustainable development, the struggle against terrorism and extremism, combating epidemics, food problems and the consequences of natural disasters.”
Lavrov spoke of how Russia's relations with Africa were strengthening "with progress "on all axes”. The Alliance of Sahel States is welcoming of a strengthened relationship with Russia. At the Summit, the Foreign Minister of Burkina Faso, Karamoko Jean-Marie Traore expressed that a partnership with Russia was a far better fit for his country and far more beneficial to its people than the historical relationship with France. The Foreign Minister of Mali, Abdoulaye Diop, also spoke favourably about a partnership with Russia. He described such a relationship as “sincere” compared to "neo-colonial" relationships with Western powers. Diop added that Mali was exploring military cooperation with Russia alongside projects in the energy, telecommunications, technology and mining sectors. Niger has recently signed a memorandum to purchase Russian-made satellites. This forms part of an agreement between Glavkosmos, a commercial arm of Russia’s Roscosmos space corporation, and the AES.
The opportunity for the Sahel Alliance to work more closely with Russia has long been in play. Hostilities towards Ukraine increased in August 2024 when Mali and Niger accused Kyiv of supporting the Tuareg rebels in Mali. The two countries have since ended diplomatic relations with Ukraine.
With or without the support of Russia, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali face an enormous battle ahead as terrorism threatens security, sovereignty and basic survival. The AES has made many strides and these leaders are acutely aware of the fact that long-term survival is not possible without true sovereignty. But for now, the total battle for mere survival is killing the prospect of sovereignty. For now, the leaders of the Sahel Alliance will need to be sure-footed to ensure that they do not falter or fall in the rush for recalibration. The Sahel region is at a tipping point.
** Kim Heller is a political analyst and author of No White Lies: Black Politics and White Power in South Africa.
** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of The African.