(From left to right) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, and Chinese President Xi Jinping join G20 leaders for a group photo at the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on November 18, 2024. As of 1 December, South Africa assumes the presidency of the group. This will be the first time our country hosts the summit despite being founding members a quarter of a century ago, says the writer. Picture: Manuel Balce Cenetac/ AFP.
WESLEY SEALE
SITTING, writing this piece on a cloudy day in a calm Sandton CBD, one can just imagine the buzz this place will have approximately a year from now when South Africa hosts the G20 summit.
As of 1 December, South Africa assumes the presidency of the group. This will be the first time our country hosts the summit despite being founding members a quarter of a century ago.
Statistics suggest that the group accounts for nearly 90% of the gross world product and three-quarters of world trade. By contrast, BRICS Plus countries only represent a third of the gross world product and 20% of global trade.
Established in 1999 in the wake of economic crises, the G20 finance ministers met to address the reform of global financial institutions and South Africa headed the secretariat, under former finance minister, Trevor Manuel, in 2007.
In the aftermath of the 2008/9 global economic meltdown, finance ministers advised their heads of government to meet.
The summits therefore commenced in 2008 and in the following year G20 leaders met, first in the United Kingdom and then in the United States.
The G20, which is now actually 19 countries and two unions, have the global economy and financial stability as its primary responsibilities but has recently also added climate change mitigation and sustainable development to its agenda.
Comprised of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union, the group allowed membership of the African Union last year.
As one can already notice, only the original BRICS countries are represented not the BRICS Plus partners: Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran and United Arab Emirates.
At the same time, we must contend with the G7, which was originally the G8 but in 2014 Russia was expelled, and which has become a political and economic forum for the main Western countries united by pluralism, liberal democracy, representative government and market economies. According to the IMF they, the G7, are also the most advanced economies on the globe.
On the other hand, the G77 plus China plays a uniting role among developing economies and a broad base for south-south cooperation. South Africa led the Group of 77 plus China in 2006 and 2015.
One of the challenges with the contemporary global governance system is the proliferation of institutions that exist in which issues, often the same issues, are discussed and decided upon. Yet hardly any of these decisions are binding upon nation-states and are dependent solely on the goodwill of leaders and their administrations in their countries.
However, a significant feature of these institutions is what former president Thabo Mbeki described when he addressed the G20 finance ministers in 2007.
President Mbeki said: “For a very long period we have had a multilateral system which in reality has been dominated [sic] of the many by the few. This replicated itself in every international engagement. Accordingly, even when modifications to the international financial architecture became necessary, especially during periods of global financial turbulence, the outcomes have inevitably preserved the status quo, allowing for only insignificant alterations.”
During its presidency this year, Brazil proposed measures that would transform the status quo.
Yet as South Africa assumes the presidency of the G20 it would be good for our leadership to keep two things in mind.
Firstly, our country’s theme for our presidency may be displaced. One finds it difficult to comprehend how incoming US president, Donald Trump, or even Argentinian president, Javier Milei, would want to “foster solidarity, equality, and sustainable development.”
Already reports abound about how Milei disagreed with aspects of the final communique at the recently held G20 in Rio de Janeiro which included, among others, a tax for dollar billionaires and advanced the climate change agenda.
In what will probably be Donald Trump’s first visit to Africa as the American president, South African officials will do well to appreciate what his administration has as goals for the G20 unless President Ramaphosa wishes to experience what Justin Trudeau experienced in 2017 at the G7 summit.
But Trump and his officials, unlike the Brazilians with even President Lula da Silva referring to President Ramaphosa as “comrade”, are unlikely to agree to ‘lefty’ concepts such as ‘solidarity’, ‘equality’ and ‘sustainable development.’
In her recently released memoir, Freedom, former German chancellor, Angela Merkel, writes: “For [Trump], all countries were rivals in which the success of one meant the failure of another. He didn’t think that prosperity could be increased for all through cooperation.”
Merkel was able to host a nonaggressive G20 summit in 2017; Trump’s first G20.
Secondly, South Africa would do well to consult with its BRICS Plus partners throughout the year of its G20 presidency and how to deal with issues.
Already, BRICS Plus countries are dealing with matters impacting directly on the global financial architecture. Many have come to see the BRICS Plus bloc as providing an alternative to the system which has been, as President Mbeki pointed out, domination “of the many by the few.”
Yet ever cognizant that players such as Trump and Milei would want to re-enforce that “few”, South Africa must be able to lean on partners such as China, Russia, India, Brazil and the UAE in order to mitigate a Trump trashing at next year’s summit.
The G20 was established to examine and act upon broad macroeconomic issues and must continue to do so. Climate change mitigation and sustainable development are ruses and there are other fora for these subjects. Among some of the issues that could be looked at is the question of debt as well as illicit financial flows.
As the chai latte which accompanied writing this piece nears its end, one hopes that the Sandton CBD will be a success story at the closing of the summit next year.
If anything, there should only be one question that will test this success: is the G20 still relevant in today’s global community?
* Dr. Wesley Seale has a PhD in international relations.
** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of The African.