Chief economist and head of research at Standard Bank, Goolam Ballim, as he presented his talk on “Geopolitics, macroeconomics, and the road ahead – a path to stability?" at the B20 Conference.
Image: Theolin Tembo
“Democracy seems to be found floundering, and illiberalism, intolerance, and extremism seems to be coming increasingly to the fore. Today, as we embrace the results of the German election, bifurcation seems to be standing out. The youth are suggesting that they are uncomfortable with the status quo. But we knew that..”
This was some of the thought leadership shared by chief economist and head of research at Standard Bank, Goolam Ballim, as he presented his talk on “Geopolitics, macroeconomics, and the road ahead – a path to stability?” at the Business20 (B20) conference on Tuesday.
The conference saw a host of business leaders from across G20 nations gathered to address pressing global economic and trade challenges. The B20 platform plays an instrumental role in shaping global economic policies and promoting international collaboration.
Ballim put into perspective a range of information and its interconnectivity to multilateralism and trade.
He mentioned that while economic dynamism is shifting from west to east, he warned that “we don't dismiss the west, and especially the United States”.
“The status quo is no more sufficient, and across either female or male lines, gender lines, or even as I suggest the youth versus the old, there's a signal of intolerance for the status quo.”
He touched on how network industries are being weaponised.
"They're becoming sources for defence, sources for assault, sources for determining economic hegemony.
“There's been a big shift towards more left-leaning thinking in the last decade or so. And some would go so far as to say that if you had gone woke, commerce would have gone broke. This is not my personal suggestion. I'm not saying that this is a big dispersion across either line, but just to suggest the fluidity of societal thinking in terms of where the ideological center sits,” Ballim said.
“Trade uncertainty has become frequent. In fact it was during President (Donald) Trump's first term with the Sino-US frictions, where we saw a pronounced rise in trade frictions, but of course it has only become so much more elevated more recently. But just general, policy uncertainty, general inflamed tensions, and continental Europe, as I suggested earlier, aflame.
Ballim said social media in recent years has helped to 'present information in such elegant, curated and convincing forms that we believe it'.
The second point I want to make surrounding this particular image (of Elon Musk) is artificial intelligence.
“It is the most powerful piece of technology known to mankind, and it is only in its infancy. And the point about artificial intelligence is that, it is the telegraph. It is the steam engine of our time.
“...The point is that a few nations monopolized the tools of industrialisation and industrial revolution. And the consequence of that leadership was that those nations that led conquered the rest of the world in many respects directly, or at least indirectly dominated the rest of the world.”
Chief economist and head of research at Standard Bank, Goolam Ballim, as he presented his talk on “Geopolitics, macroeconomics, and the road ahead – a path to stability?" at the B20 conference on Tuesday.
Image: Theolin Tembo
“Is the US losing its empire status? Of course, we now live in a world where there are many more voices. There is an increasing level of multi-polarity. And at least when measured through the purchasing power parity lens, which speaks to particularly expenditure, the US has forsaken a great share of global GDP.
“And of course, we know well that China's ascendancy has been remarkable. In fact, unprecedented, given the extent of people it has lifted out of poverty, in just three decades and some.”
Ballim said as the focus shifts to B20 2025, the B20 inherits the mould and the responsibility, alongside the G20, of a South African consensus.
“A South African consensus that reaffirms commitment to multilateralism, to the Paris Accord - which is being rolled back in many respects - not just the United States, but also some corporates, and even across Europe…
“To match a consensus of the mid-1940s, that speaks to reestablishing commitments along the lines of trade, capital and people mobility, at the minimum, combined with the reaffirmed commitment to climate change, I think, would be a path towards stability.”
theolin.tembo@inl.co.za
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