The Changing Dynamic of US-EU Relations

For decades, the EU and US have been perceived as partners in a simplified vision of Western unity. However, recent developments suggest a growing rift, as evidenced by the contentious start to the Munich Security Conference (MSC). Under Trump’s leadership, the US and EU appear increasingly divided in their approaches to both international security and domestic policy.

Munich Security Conference

The MSC, held from 14 to 16 February 2025, saw an atmosphere of palpable tension as US Vice President JD Vance approached the podium. Just 48 hours earlier, the global geopolitical landscape had appeared markedly different.

European leaders had long anticipated that Trump’s return to the presidency would challenge transatlantic relations, but Wednesday night’s phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin sent shockwaves through the EU and NATO. Concerns quickly mounted that Europe might find itself sidelined in discussions concerning Ukraine and the broader global order.

Shortly thereafter, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sought to balance concern with confidence. She asserted that Europe must—and would—substantially increase its defence expenditure and military capabilities. However, she also stressed that considerable progress had already been made, emphasising that a stronger Europe ultimately serves US interests as well.

JD Vance’s Criticisms

Vance criticised the annulment of what he deemed a legitimate presidential election in Romania. The election was declared invalid by Romania’s constitutional court in December after alleged widespread Russian interference was uncovered. He also condemned the UK’s ban on anti-abortion protests outside clinics and denounced the exclusion of extremist parties from political participation.

“Free speech, I fear, is in retreat,” Vance declared. “What has been less clear to me—and I believe to many citizens of Europe—is what exactly you are defending. What is the positive vision that drives this shared security compact, which we all claim to value?” His remarks were met with stunned silence from many of his European counterparts.

NATO & The War in Ukraine

With Trump excluding the EU and Kyiv from negotiations between the US and Russia concerning the war in Ukraine, European leaders may need to reconsider their security strategies. This week, US and Russian officials are meeting in Saudi Arabia to "begin working on a path" to end the conflict. Beyond cutting its NATO presence in Europe, the US is also reassessing the financial and military aid it has provided to Ukraine since the war began.

As Vance’s speech continued, it became increasingly apparent that the transatlantic discord extends far beyond traditional geopolitical disputes, such as Ukraine, the Middle East, or defence burden-sharing. The divide between the US and its European allies runs deeper, challenging the once widely embraced notion of a "community of values" that has long united the Western world.

A New Strategic Partnership: China

Global trade tensions have escalated in recent weeks following a series of aggressive tariff measures introduced by Trump. While maintaining high tariffs on Chinese imports, Trump has now threatened similar protectionist measures against the European Union, raising alarm across the Atlantic.

These mounting pressures have led European leaders to reassess their strategic alliances, particularly their trade relationships with China. Against this backdrop, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s speech at the EU Ambassadors Conference on 4 February took on heightened significance.

China was quick to respond, signalling its willingness to strengthen ties. “The world is facing the risk of division, fragmentation, and disorder,” stated Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian. “China-EU relations now carry even greater strategic importance and global influence.”

Prior to these statements, EU-China trade relations had been strained. The French cognac industry exemplifies these challenges, with data from the Bureau National Interprofessionnel du Cognac showing a 23.8% decline in exports to China by value and a 9.6% drop in volume last year compared to 2023.

Tensions escalated further after China implemented new tariffs on 11 October in response to EU duties on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). Industry reports indicate this led to a 75% decline in French cognac exports to China in December, underscoring critical trade issues in need of resolution.

As divisions between the US and EU widen, European leaders are facing difficult choices regarding security, trade, and their place in the evolving global order. With NATO’s future uncertain, and Europe increasingly looking towards alternative partnerships, the traditional transatlantic alliance appears more fractured than ever. How Europe navigates this new reality will shape its role on the world stage for years to come.

By Cole Jackson,

Lead Associate BRICS+ Consulting Group

Chinese & South American Specialist

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