ANC members have converged onto the Nasrec Expo to elect new leadership and adopt policy proposals from its policy conference. Here, President Cyril Ramaphosa makes a point to a delegate. Picture: TIMOTHY BERNARD/African News Agency (ANA)
Political analysts warn that the adoption of critical policies may take a backseat at the ANC conference this weekend as members are preoccupied with the battle for leadership.
The ANC’s leadership rivalry ahead if the 55th national conference which was held at Nasrec this week overshadowed the adoption of “people-centric” policies. And political analysts warned that that this would lead-up to a possible breakaway by disgruntled factions ahead of elections in 2024.
Dubbed the "make or break" conference by some analysts, the conference was criticised for slacking on the policy front as the party had already failed to implement key policies from 2017.
The party’s July policy conference saw the party make sweeping proposals that were meant to be discussed during plenary sessions over the next couple of days.
Topics such as land reform legislation, ANC restoration and overhauling membership criteria, carbon cut-down and renewable energy, harsher penalties for sexual offences and nationalising the South African Reserve Bank should have been covered.
But political analyst Lukhanyo Vangqa said squabbles over who would be in the top six was proof that the policy framework was overlooked.
"There are no groundbreaking proposals for this conference. It's not like 2017 when expropriation without compensation was a topical issue and was monumental and significant when that conference adopted it," Vangqa said.
He said while the policy on nationalisation of the Reserve Bank was among the critical points to watch for, the ruling party could water it down.
"I don’t think this is something that they will do; instead, they will water down these policies and speak about implementing them at a pace and scale that they can afford.
“From a policy level, it’s not politics of policy that are at play; it’s simply politics of personality, and what will be significant is who then becomes deputy president," Vangqa said.
Vangqa added that the ruling party had also not done anything significant for the economy.
"The economy is worse than under Jacob Zuma, but the way that documents capture success uses language to mask failures," Vangqa said.
Political analyst Andre Duvenhage described the gathering as a "make or break conference".
"When comparing the two conferences, the 2017 one and the current one, this one is probably the more important one. I would like to see this conference as a make-or-break conference for the ANC as the party is on a steady decline," Duvenhage said.
He said the ANC was a party in crisis.
"There hasn’t been a lot of progress in terms of growing its support base; they did not implement their policy framework; the ANC is literally in crisis at all levels. This is an organisation that is falling apart.
"Depending on what happens at the conference, the ANC might end up in an even bigger crisis after the conference," Duvenhage said.
He said the party’s internal conflict could lead to an even greater decline at the polls in 2024.
"I’m expecting that we may see a breakaway but this is dependent on how those who lose will react.
"And if there is a breakaway, we can expect even more decline in the next election; the ANC won’t even reach 40%," Duvenhage said.
Weekend Argus